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Crisis in the UMP, "What if the division was the solution?"

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Crisis in the UMP, "What if the division was the solution?"

POLICY - "Jean-Francois Cope prefer a thousand times to be president of UMP diminished rather than risk losing everything," Gérard-Pancrazi analysis.


Jean-Francois Cope is not so sure that I won. He failed to be convinced. Otherwise, we do not see why he would talk endlessly with his competitor, to shorten its mandate and to consider making all kinds of concessions ...

Its either are no longer safe supporters of nothing, if indeed they have been for a while. The first of these, Luc Chatel, is increasingly embarrassed by this situation. It truly feels ill at ease. He asked that the word be given back to the militants. Henri Guaino, its most prestigious support, has just stated in his turn. The general feeling is that it's Jean-Francois Cope who takes responsibility for what happened.

Jean-Francois Cope will get hurt in this matter and he fully realizes. Less sure of himself than usual, he tries obviously save time, perhaps thinking to come back in the game is the only option left to him. Save time. The pressure exerted on all sides is becoming stronger. He admitted that in recent days have been terrible for him. It was felt destabilized.

He has the R-UMP saved Cope?

But creating the R-UMP, Francois Fillon may have saved his opponent. It is certain that without this group, Jean-Francois Cope could not last long in this situation. Nobody would accept that things remain as they are and he could not escape the verdict of the militants, who have been made, one way or another, within a reasonable time.

With this group, the pressure that is exerted on Jean-Francois Cope has diminished to see about this event unique to say the least. But after all, is that it would not the solution? Each of his group, and maybe tomorrow, each movement. Jean-Francois Cope prefer a thousand times to be president of UMP diminished rather than risk losing everything. And after losing a vote in response to suspected fraud would be disastrous for him.

As for François Fillon who spoke about political divide and stated that he wanted to be president of the movement, he knows that back in a party so divided, with opponents also resolved, could only weaken it. However, at the head of a group of MPs sure that with time would ask that expanding, it could be a real political force much more effective.

Another advantage is direct access to the presidential inauguration, bypassing the primary, which would avoid him, the former prime minister himself, to go take risks in abstruse fighting and he abhors.

Independence and clarity

Yes, two groups can be tomorrow's two movements may be the solution. More independence, more clarity on the bottom, and at the same time the possibility for the right to have a wider seat, R.UMP Fillon could counter the temptation UDI, the UMP Jean-Francois Cope would avoid bleeding to the National Front. A strategy that would have the merit to reassure disappointed activists.

This scheme would finally have another advantage, and it is not negligible. François Fillon, at the head of a group that has formed, would not have to fade if returned to Nicolas Sarkozy ...

A better to watch one wonders if Francois Fillon does not take advantage of the opportunity of pataquès ensuing elections to create his own strength that better suits his personality and his way of doing politics. We do not feel pressed to reach a solution with its competitor, and it is clear that his group began quietly in place, without really giving the impression that one is in provisional.

After all, did not we say that chance sometimes good things?

Gerard Pancrazi for the Club Pol Story.

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