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PS, FN, UMP: who benefit most from the new map of the regions?

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PS, FN, UMP: who benefit most from the new map of the regions?



Re-Shaping the new areas gives the next regional?

afp.com/Philippe Huguen



And if, by changing the map of the regions, the government sought to limit the damage the next regional elections, with a subtle sleight of turn? Express compared the votes regions caused to be grouped with European 2014 to see if the members are called to vote on the measure Wednesday in the Assembly should take this into account or not. Here's our verdict (see our methodology at end of article).

Two mergers blur the cards

Poitou-Charentes, Aquitaine, Limousin: a disadvantage to the PS 24.43%. This is the best of the regional total PS list in France with European past, collected by the list of John Paul Denanot in Limousin. Far ahead of the national average of 13.98% ...

Damage to the government: 544,000 voters Limousin up only 12.91% of the population of all Poitou-Charentes, Aquitaine, Limousin. This grouping would therefore rather to the detriment of the PS, according to our calculations, since it weighed only 11.22% of the vote in the European past.

Editor's note: the trend was the same in the 2012 presidential election Francois Hollande had collected 38% of the vote in the Limousin in the first round, against 31% in the other two regions.

Languedoc-Roussillon - Midi-Pyrénées. Grouping which dilutes the FN with 31.47% of the vote, Jean-Marie Le Pen was hit hard in Languedoc-Roussillon. A potentially winnable region for Marine Le Pen's party in the next election? The issue may not arise since the merger with Midi-Pyrénées is mathematically down the FN, which gathered that there was 22.36%. Result: on the whole, the National Front party weighed only 26.77%.

Same trend for president in 2012, there also: Marine Le Pen had collected 23.45% of votes in the first round in Languedoc-Roussillon against 16.22% in Midi-Pyrenees

Five groups do not change much

Nord-Pas-de-Calais - Picardie:. The two best scores of the FN in both regions, Marine Le Pen's party arrived in last May head with much higher scores more than 10 points to its national average ( 35.17% and 38.41% against 24.85%). The group therefore changes the landscape at the margin since all will remain a serious (but not acquired) lucky win the FN regional next, as noted by Europe 1.

>> See also map councilors FN

Champagne-Ardenne, Alsace, Lorraine advantage right These three regions voted in rather similar to the European past. FN and UMP slightly above average, PS, Greens and Left Front slightly below. Again, the merger shakes somewhat.

Lower and Upper Normandy: the FN above average Again, two regions that have similar profiles, although the FN vote was stronger in Normandy in May (31.24% against 26.87. %). All remains at a high level FN (29.25%), the other parties ranging roughly equivalent to the national averages.

Rhône-Alpes and Auvergne very close to the national averages. Two opposing sized regions (4.19 million voters in the first against 1 million in the second), but comparable to the votes, while the PS is significantly higher in Auvergne (16.02 against 13.08).

Burgundy -. Franche-Comté, like two drops of water The two regions have almost voted as twin sisters last spring. The scores are close to national averages, except those of FN, stronger (about 3 points) at the expense of the UMP (about -3 points).

>> See also: the latest version of the map of regions

And the six regions that remain single?

The left she chose to leave only areas that are favorable to limit the damage to EU next? The study of the six regions left alone belies this hypothesis:

  • Corsica, Centre PACA and most voted UMP and FN than average
  • Brittany, Ile-de-France and Pays-de-la-Loire longer voted PS and environmentalist than average, but the two teams are never more than 26.37% (against 22.91% on average)

Methods: We compared the votes of six teams who got elected the last European elections (FN, UMP, PS, UDI-modem, Greens, Left Front) in each region, from the Interior Ministry statistics . And why not the latest regional? Because there are large differences between the scores achieved by the main parties between this election and the latest-especially those of the FN, which had collected "only" 11.42% of the votes in the first round.

We then looked at, based on the number of voters in each region (INSEE statistics), what was the result in areas under the new map of the areas under discussion in the Assembly.

>> Here's our spreadsheet

Note: in five of seven groups of studied areas, candidates for the European past were identical. When this was not the case, we stated in our table.

Tags: new, regions, plus, benefit

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